Where it began, it seems a lifetime ago ....
This is the view from the market town of Ledbury, the heart of a rural community in Herefordshire, England. The county is set between the Malvern Hills and the
border with Wales. Recording facts about the pandemic as it happens from direct evidence or reliable information sources worldwide.
Background. Viruses are everywhere. Probably the earliest to be noticed and the one everyone now knows is the influenza
virus. The word ‘influenza’ coming from medieval Latin meaning ‘(astrological) influence (of the stars)’ and the illness was first recorded
by Hippocrates in 412 B.C.E. It is an orthomyxovirus and the form Influenza A has the potential to cause pandemics. The first viral pandemic
was in 1580 C.E. The most recent were all influenza virus A. “Spanish” Flu in 1918, H2N2 strain (Asian Flu) in 1957, H3N2 strain “Hong Kong”
Flu in 1967, H5N1 strain (Bird Flu) in 2005 and H1N1 strain (Swine Flu) in 2009.
The cold-weather Annual Seasonal Flu is a mild illness which has been common worldwide for many years. One influenza A(H1N1), one influenza A(H3N2), and one or
two influenza B viruses (depending on the vaccine) are included in each season’s influenza vaccines.
The earliest virus to affect humanity was probably the poliovirus which is a picornavirus. It was first described in the UK in 1789.
Because of widespread vaccination from the mid-1950’s onwards, polio was eliminated from the Western Hemisphere in 1994 but outbreaks have since been noted in
Nigeria, Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Around 1976 a retrovirus in Congo, West Africa passed from chimpanzees to humans and has since spread everywhere. The human immunodeficiency
virus (HIV) attacks the body’s immune system leaving you wide open to other diseases. The illness, termed AIDS, peaked between 2005 and 2012 but to date over 36
million people have died. Another virus, a coronavirus, caused the SARS outbreak of 2002 in Guandong Province, China but the outbreak was only
classed as an epidemic. Another coronavirus caused the MERS outbreak in the Middle East in 2012.
The new coronavirus strain, SARS-Cov-2A, leading to the disease COVID-19, appeared in China possibly contracted by humans from
live animals at a market in Wuhan or possibly an escape from a research labaratory in Wuhan. Previous outbreaks, SARS and MERS came from bats, via palm civet cats
and camels respectively. The virus can be de-activated by soap solution or a 70%+-alcohol sanitary handwash solution. Since it appeared the virus has mutated
into a series of variants of interest (Epsilon, Zeta, Eta, Theta, Iota, Kappa, Lambda and Mu) and variants of concern (the first alpha, beta, Gamma, Delta and Omicron,
the latest). The name comes from the corona or crown which shows up on an electron microscope.
Virions of coronavirus (colored transmission electron microscopy image).Image Credit: Dr. Fred Murphy & Sylvia Whitfield/CDC
The story continues ....
Saturday 1st January The i newspaper reports that thousands of people left messages on the Chinese Weibo social media account
of Li Wenliang, the opthalmologist who first alerted the authorities to the novel coronavirus in Wuhan. It is the second anniversary of his warning (see 2020 diary)
and the messages expressed thanks and sadness that he was among the first to die of COVID-19.
The UK Government website reported today that a total of 546,000 people in England have been hosptalised in England since the start of the pandemic. The number is
43,000 in Scotland, 37,000 in Wales and 15,000 in Northern Ireland. At present there are 14,500 people in hospital including 850 in mechanical ventilation beds but
these figures are expected to continue to rise.
2nd January Last August the UK Government promised to supply around 300,000 carbon dioxide monitors to all state-funded education settings made
possible by £25 million of government funding. The aim was to detect poorly ventilated rooms (CO2 levels over 1500ppm) where improvements needed
to be made. They also supplied 1000 air purifier units as a trial. Today the Education Secretary Nadhim Zahawi announces that the Department of Education will
supply a further 7,000 units. They will be targeted at modern classrooms without opening windows where recirculating air conditioning units are in use.
3rd January The latest world figures from Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland. Right click
to view the dashboard full-size or
5th January The Evening Standard reports on 14th January that NHS staff absences peaked today at 49,941. The total includes staff who were ill
with coronavirus or who were having to self-isolate.
6th January The gov.uk ‘Coronavirus in the UK’ webpage says that from 6 January in Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales, and
11 January in England, people with positive lateral flow results for COVID-19 need to report their result but don’t need to take a confirmatory PCR
test unless they develop COVID-19 symptoms. This is a temporary measure while COVID-19 rates remain high across the UK as the vast majority of people with
positive lateral flow test results can be confident that they have COVID-19. A similar approach was taken in January 2021, when infection prevalence was high,
meaning it was highly likely that a positive lateral flow test COVID-19 result was a true positive. Confirmatory PCRs were temporarily paused and
reintroduced in March 2021 after infection rates fell.
8th January The evening TV news reports that the figure for COVID-19 deaths now exceeds 150,000.
Vaccination progress is shown on these UK Government website charts. The number of people of all ages who have received a COVID-19 vaccination is shown as a
percentage of the population aged 12 and over using the 2020 mid-year population estimate. Right click to view full-size or
Sunday 9th January On BBC Broadcasting House this morning Paddy O’Connell spoke to consultant Dr. Steve James who gives his personal
reasons for refusing the COVID-19 vaccination.
11th January A New Yorker cartoon from early on in the pandemic.
Progress of the pandemic in our area of Herefordshire and edge of Worcestershire from August 11 last year to today. Right click to view the video full-size.
or
12th January Dr. Jonathan Van-Tam who has been a prominent figure at Government briefings from Downing Street tells health officials this
evening that he will leave his government post at the end of March to return to academia. He was on secondment from Nottingham University to the Department of
Health for a four and a half year period and appointed deputy chief medical officer for England as well as serving on the
SAGE Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies
committee.
13th January The UK Times newspaper reports that Prime Minister Boris Johnson defied calls last night for his resignation over lockdown parties
in Downing Street as the Tories fell to their lowest poll rating against Labour in almost a decade. Speaking in the House of Commons, the Prime Minister
apologised to the public for the rage they feel over the allegations as he admitted attending an event in the No 10 garden in May 2020. He said
he believed it was a work event and that he had not seen an invitation from his principal private secretary for 100 staff to bring their own alcohol to
socially distanced drinks. He also told the Commons he had gone to the No10 party gathering to thank staff. The UK newspapers have
critical headlines today.
UK newspapers online report that the Health Secretary Sajid Javid tells the Commons today that the Covid self-isolation period in England for those who test
positive will be cut to five days from next Monday. He said that the UKHSA UK Health Security
Agency found around two thirds of positive cases are no longer infectious by the end of day five. People will only be
allowed to leave isolation if they record two negative lateral flow tests on days five and six, before being allowed to leave on the sixth. After
reviewing all of the evidence, we’ve made the decision to reduce the minimum self-isolation period to five full days in England, Mr Javid said.
From Monday, people can test twice before they go, leaving isolation at the start of day six.
14th January
Euronews reports that in India hundreds of thousands of Indian pilgrims are attending a massive religious festival as cases of
Covid-19 spread across the country. Authorities said they expected up to three million people to take a ritual bath in the holy river Ganges on Friday,
the highlight of the annual Gangasagar Mela. A similarly colossal religious festival, the Kumbh Mela, which the Hindu nationalist government refused to ban
last April, has been blamed in part for a devastating spike in cases that have killed 200,000 people, according to official counts, though some experts fear
the real toll is several times higher.
15th January This Herefordshire Council advertisement appeared in the local newspapers last November just before Omicron was recognised.
16th January On BBC Broadcasting House this morning Paddy O’Connell does a follow-up on coronavirus antibodies by having himself tested.
17th January Euronews reports that from today, older people in Greece that are not vaccinated face monthly fines. Those over the age of 60 and
without the jab will have to pay a €50 penalty in January, rising to €100 in February. The decision comes as the country’s public health system
struggles to cope with an increase in cases and the government starts to run out of patience with those who are still unvaccinated against COVID-19. In France
a new “vaccine pass” bill means people 16 and over who aren’t fully vaccinated will be excluded from restaurants, movie theatres, sports arenas,
and other venues, trains and domestic flights.
Starting from February, Austria will become the first European country to make coronavirus vaccination compulsory for all adults. Those who do not comply will
face a hefty fine of up to €3,600.
18th January On 21st December the Full Fact website had an article by Abbas Panjwani entitled “How many people in England are
unvaccinated?” It explained clearly the problems in answering this question.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) latest estimate for 2020 puts the population at 55.6 million based on updating the 2011 census figures. The ONS
estimate for the population aged 12 and over is 48,375,273.
The UKHSA UK Health Security Agency uses data extracted from the National
Immunisation Management Service (NIMS) which counts 62,724,319 people in England registered with the NHS. However this s expected to overestimate the
total population of England (and therefore the total number of unvaccinated people), as it includes people who are still registered with the NHS but
moved abroad for example, and may double count people registered with more than one GP. The NIMS figure for the population aged 12 or over is 54,328,630.
Today the total number of first vaccinations in England is reported as 43,819,571 so that means somewhere betweeen 4,555,702 and 10,509,059 people are
unvaccinated. The ONS figure is 9.4%, but the NIMS figure is 19.3% of the 12 and over population of England.
19th January The UK Health Secretary Sajid Javid gives a television briefing this afternoon where he summarise the developments since
he took over the post and confirms the latest relaxations of the rules. (9 mins)
This slide, presented at the briefing, shows the link between vaccination status and hospital admissions.
21st January London Mayor Sadiq Khan says that the Major Incident in the capital, declared on 18 December, is stood down today as daily case
numbers are falling.
23rd January These UK Government figures (PDF file) show how the Omicron wave of COVID infections
was reflected in hospitalisations and the various days when peaks occurred. Reports from various hospitals were that most patients were unvaccinated.
26th January
The Open Access News website reports on the latest data released by the
REACT Real-time Assessment of Community Transmission programme. This programme was
commissioned from the Imperial College London, School of Public Health by the UK Department of Health, to track how COVID-19 is spreading in the country.
The Omicron variant has now made an “almost complete” replacement of Delta in the UK, according to the latest analysis. Now, scientists are
tracking “unprecedented” levels of COVID cases across the country. Currently, one in 23 people have had the virus. This is a much higher level
of infection than January, 2021, despite the presence of majority double-vaccination across the country. Professor Paul Elliott, director of the REACT programme,
There is good news in our data in that infections had been rapidly dropping during January, but they are still extremely high and may have recently
stalled at a very high prevalence. When it comes to age groups, school-aged children have the highest number of infections. At the moment, one in 13
children are testing positive. The lowest level of infection is currently in those aged above 75+ at one in 41 cases of COVID. However this is still a
12-fold increase in contrast to December, 2021.
27th January The UK COVID dashboard reports today that from 31st January UKHSA will change its case reporting. Previously cases were recorded of
individual people who had been infected but reinfections were not counted as a new case. From here on the figures will include a reinfection occurring after
90 days or more as a completely new case. Although technically accurate since many cases are reinfections, the link with population numbers affected by
the virus will now be broken and the number of cases recorded will not relate to the number of people affected.
Virions of coronavirus (colored transmission electron microscopy image).
Image Credit: Dr. Fred Murphy & Sylvia Whitfield/CDC
